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Times have changed so fast today that almost everyone
has an idea how the financial stock market works as compared to a few years
back when only a handful understood. Nowadays, it is very common to hear
people discussing the subject in all manner of gatherings. This can only
be an indication that many people have been enlightened about the stock
trading system and the many benefits that it has to the economy.
Using technical analysis is unlike fundamental analysis. This method does not look into company profit or turnover. Instead, its main ideas is to look at recent price behavior and solely on that basis tries to make recommendation whether to buy, sell or stay on sidelines. Thanks to the quick reacting on price changes, technical analysis can give a "buy" signal one week, and a "sell" signal week after. There is nothing wrong about changing your position so often - after all the only way to make money is to be on the right side of the market, and as I showed in summary - average monthly absolute change is much higher than average monthly gain. The sole important question is: how can you be on the right side of the market for most of the time? Technical analysis method uses hundreds of indicators and patterns. Someone said: "it takes a little bit of time to learn, and a lifetime to master". Let begin with some learning basic methods of market timing. Moving Average It follows the price with a small lag. This lag has some disadvantages - it always gives signal slightly later than the move begin, so you will never catch the top or the bottom. This can be also a good thing as small moves against your position will not throw you out of the market. Go long when price is above its moving average and short vice versa. Head and Shoulders Pattern The name comes from its shape: market goes up followed by small correction. Then goes up a little more, followed by bigger correction (to about the same level as first correction). Then goes up again to about the same level as first up move, and then goes down to the level where previous corrections stopped. This level is called "neckline" and if it's broken (that is, market goes below it) it's usually considered a warning sign before a strong sell off. Go short if the neckline is broken. There also exist a pattern called "reverse head and shoulder" - it looks exactly the same, except it's over way round. Go long if its neckline is broken. Base, or Consolidation If stock's price moves in a very tight range for a while and then goes strongly up or down - trade with the direction of the breakout. Candlestick Patterns A couple of days of a specific range can mean price increase or a sell off in nearest future. There are dozens of candlestick patterns, too many to describe in this article but you can find them on many sites on the Internet. |
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